Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
19 SMU 0.0%   25 - 5 13 - 5 25 - 5 13 - 5 +15.2      +9.8 14 +5.3 45 64.8 299 +14.9 19 +12.1 2
29 Connecticut 100.0%   8   24 - 10 11 - 7 24 - 10 11 - 7 +13.0      +5.1 56 +7.9 17 65.9 281 +11.8 38 +9.3 6
32 Cincinnati 80.1%   10   22 - 10 12 - 6 22 - 10 12 - 6 +12.2      +3.6 89 +8.5 11 63.9 317 +10.9 44 +11.0 4
59 Houston 5.1%   22 - 9 12 - 6 22 - 9 12 - 6 +9.2      +8.6 22 +0.7 158 67.5 243 +8.5 73 +10.9 5
64 Tulsa 37.3%   20 - 11 12 - 6 20 - 11 12 - 6 +8.4      +5.2 54 +3.2 92 71.3 141 +9.1 62 +11.4 3
71 Memphis 0.0%   19 - 15 8 - 10 19 - 15 8 - 10 +7.9      +2.3 114 +5.6 41 82.5 9 +4.6 106 +3.6 7
84 Temple 38.3%   21 - 11 14 - 4 21 - 11 14 - 4 +6.6      +1.5 137 +5.1 48 65.4 294 +10.5 48 +14.3 1
173 Central Florida 0.0%   12 - 18 6 - 12 12 - 18 6 - 12 -0.7      -2.1 220 +1.4 135 70.0 175 -0.9 176 +1.0 8
185 East Carolina 0.0%   12 - 20 4 - 14 12 - 20 4 - 14 -1.5      -0.1 175 -1.3 202 66.4 270 -1.5 187 -2.7 10
192 Tulane 0.0%   12 - 22 3 - 15 12 - 22 3 - 15 -1.9      -4.6 290 +2.7 104 69.1 192 -2.2 198 -4.9 11
215 South Florida 0.0%   8 - 25 4 - 14 8 - 25 4 - 14 -3.4      -4.1 282 +0.8 153 67.8 236 -5.2 242 -2.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
SMU 2.0 100.0
Connecticut 6.0 100.0
Cincinnati 3.0 100.0
Houston 3.0 100.0
Tulsa 3.0 100.0
Memphis 7.0 100.0
Temple 1.0 100.0
Central Florida 8.0 100.0
East Carolina 9.0 100.0
Tulane 11.0 100.0
South Florida 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
SMU 13 - 5 100.0
Connecticut 11 - 7 100.0
Cincinnati 12 - 6 100.0
Houston 12 - 6 100.0
Tulsa 12 - 6 100.0
Memphis 8 - 10 100.0
Temple 14 - 4 100.0
Central Florida 6 - 12 100.0
East Carolina 4 - 14 100.0
Tulane 3 - 15 100.0
South Florida 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
SMU
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Houston
Tulsa
Memphis
Temple 100.0% 100.0
Central Florida
East Carolina
Tulane
South Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Connecticut 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 8   0.0 0.6 19.0 42.3 30.6 7.2 0.3
Cincinnati 80.1% 0.0% 80.1% 10   0.0 1.1 9.1 21.2 33.8 14.9 0.0 19.9 80.1%
Houston 5.1% 0.0% 5.1% 0.1 4.0 1.1 0.0 94.9 5.1%
Tulsa 37.3% 0.0% 37.3% 0.1 1.5 10.4 24.6 0.6 62.7 37.3%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 38.3% 0.0% 38.3% 0.0 0.7 4.2 13.0 20.1 0.3 61.7 38.3%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 57.2% 15.9% 6.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Cincinnati 80.1% 9.2% 76.3% 39.8% 11.2% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Houston 5.1% 5.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 37.3% 21.0% 25.1% 8.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 38.3% 16.9% 27.3% 7.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.6 5.9 39.2 43.5 11.2 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 2.3 10.7 51.9 33.0 4.3 0.1
2nd Round 79.7% 1.1 20.3 49.4 26.9 3.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 27.9% 0.3 72.1 25.7 2.2 0.1
Elite Eight 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.2 0.3
Final Four 3.7% 0.0 96.3 3.7 0.0
Final Game 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.4